The 2027 Run
A single forecast run written forward from 21 June 2026 to 31 December 2027 — each edition composed only from the one before it. The certainty thins as it goes.
US–Iran interim deal signed in France; first implementation talks collapse in Switzerland
Versailles — President Trump and Iran’s Masoud Pezeshkian signed a 14-point memorandum on 17 June to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, opening a 60-day window for nuclear talks. Two days later the first implementation round in Switzerland was abruptly called off, with the US delegation pulling out amid Israel–Hezbollah clashes. The deal survives, but its first real test has already faltered.
Ukraine launches its largest-ever drone strike on Moscow; Russia vows massive retaliation — read ▸
Moscow — Ukraine mounted its largest drone assault of the war overnight, striking the Moscow Oil Refinery and forcing four airports to ground flights. Kyiv framed the raid as pressure toward diplomacy; the Kremlin promised “massive group strikes” in reply. No ceasefire is in prospect.
Andy Burnham wins the Makerfield by-election, threatening Starmer’s leadership — read ▸
Makerfield — Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham won the Makerfield by-election, securing the Commons seat needed to mount a leadership challenge. With 110 Labour MPs already urging the prime minister to step down, the result turns a simmering question into an open crisis.
Oil steadies near $80 as the Strait of Hormuz reopens — read ▸
London — Brent crude steadied near $80 as the Strait of Hormuz reopened to tanker traffic, with the first Saudi-owned vessels moving since the war began. Volatility persists on the stalled political track, but the war premium is draining out of oil.
Trump administration expands ICE surveillance; the Gulf boat-strike campaign draws scrutiny — read ▸
Washington — The administration moved to widen ICE’s access to facial-recognition tools as its Gulf strike campaign against alleged “narcoterrorists,” which has killed more than 200 people, drew mounting legal scrutiny. Immigration and executive power are hardening into the midterm’s central fault lines.
Implementation talks restart in Oman; Hormuz traffic two-thirds restored, oil slips to the high-$70s
Muscat — After the Swiss collapse, implementation talks resume in Oman, where mediators report incremental progress on sequencing sanctions relief against verification steps. Hormuz traffic is roughly two-thirds restored and Brent eases into the high-$70s. The fate of Iran’s enriched-uranium stockpile remains the unresolved core.
The energy-infrastructure war deepens as both capitals trade deep strikes; no ceasefire in sight — read ▸
Kyiv — The war settles into an energy-infrastructure duel, with Ukraine striking Russian refineries and Moscow hammering the Ukrainian grid. Western capitals press for talks, but neither side signals readiness. Civilians brace for another bombarded summer.
Starmer triggers a Labour leadership contest, vowing to fight Burnham and Streeting — read ▸
London — Facing open revolt, Keir Starmer triggers a formal Labour leadership contest rather than wait to be pushed, pledging to fight both Burnham and Wes Streeting. Government business slows as the party braces for a summer of campaigning.
Markets firm on Middle East de-escalation as inflation cools toward target — read ▸
London — Equities firm as the Middle East de-escalates and headline inflation drifts toward target, reviving bets on autumn rate cuts. Risk appetite returns, though strategists warn the calm rests on a fragile diplomatic track.
A global AI safety summit yields a voluntary framework; enforcement is left vague — read ▸
San Francisco — A global AI safety summit produces a voluntary framework on model evaluations and disclosure, signed by the major labs. Critics note the absence of binding enforcement, calling it a statement of intent more than a regime.
You’ve seen the first forecast. Here’s the whole arc at a glance — how each storyline runs to the end of 2027, and the handful of forks where the future could have gone the other way. Then scroll on to read it month by month.
| When | The two roads | The road we took | What the betting markets said |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 2026 | Starmer survives ↔ falls | Starmer falls; Burnham becomes PM | no liquid market |
| Nov 2026 | status-quo ↔ divided Congress | Divided government | — |
| Dec 2026 | Ukraine freeze ↔ collapse | Fragile armistice freeze | Polymarket ~46% ceasefire — run leaned yes |
| Feb 2027 | Taiwan crisis ↔ war | Crisis short of war | — |
| Jul 2027 | lunar landing succeeds ↔ slips | Successful landing | — |
Every edition is written only from the one before it — no fresh facts are slipped in after the first day. It’s a weather forecast for the news: run it forward and watch the certainty thin out. The far-off editions stay deliberately broad, because honest long-range forecasting is about which way things are heading, not what happens on a Tuesday.
The Labour leadership ballot opens; Burnham leads members’ polling as Streeting courts the centre
London — Balloting opens in the Labour leadership race, with Burnham leading among members on a change message while Streeting courts the centre and Starmer leans on incumbency. A result is expected in early autumn.
The 60-day nuclear window lapses; talks are extended as IAEA access stays partial — read ▸
Vienna — The 60-day nuclear window lapses without a final agreement; negotiators extend talks as IAEA inspectors retain only partial access. The interim deal holds, but its central question is deferred once more.
Front lines harden ahead of winter while Washington presses both sides toward talks — read ▸
Kyiv — Front lines harden ahead of winter as both armies dig in. Washington intensifies pressure for negotiations, floating security guarantees, but a ceasefire remains out of reach.
The midterm campaign centres on prices and immigration; ICE expansion fuels protests — read ▸
Washington — The midterm campaign centres on prices and immigration, with the expanded ICE surveillance program drawing protests in several cities. Control of Congress looks genuinely contested.
Oil settles into the low-$70s for a calmer summer across global markets — read ▸
Singapore — Oil settles into the low-$70s and global markets enjoy a quieter summer, with volatility gauges easing. Attention turns to the central-bank meetings of the autumn.
Burnham wins the Labour leadership; Starmer resigns as PM and Burnham heads for Downing Street
London — Burnham wins the Labour leadership, and Starmer announces his resignation as prime minister, clearing the way for Burnham to enter Downing Street. The handover is set to be orderly, but it marks the most abrupt mid-term change of premier in years and resets British politics.
The Iran deal holds, but nuclear-verification talks stall again — read ▸
Tehran — The Iran deal holds, yet verification talks stall once more over inspector access and the fate of enriched material. Diplomats describe an agreement that survives by deferral rather than resolution.
A US-brokered ceasefire framework is floated; a front-line freeze is proposed, terms contested — read ▸
Brussels — A US-brokered framework proposes freezing the front along current lines, but its terms — monitoring, guarantees, sanctions relief — are fiercely contested in both capitals. A breakthrough is possible but far from assured.
The PLA stages large drills near Taiwan as regional tensions climb — read ▸
Taipei — The PLA stages large-scale drills around Taiwan, testing the island’s defences and the region’s nerves. Washington and Tokyo voice concern as commercial shipping reroutes to avoid the exercises.
Sterling wobbles then steadies on an orderly UK transition — read ▸
London — Sterling wobbles on the change of premier before steadying, as markets judge the transition orderly and Burnham’s early signals market-friendly enough to avoid a rout.
PM Burnham’s early agenda — housing, the NHS and an EU reset — meets a surging Reform UK in the polls
London — Prime Minister Burnham sets out an early agenda of housing, NHS investment and a warmer posture toward the EU, even as Reform UK surges in the polls and reshapes the opposition landscape.
Ceasefire talks inch forward; a limited truce and prisoner exchange take shape — read ▸
Geneva — Ceasefire talks inch forward, with negotiators shaping a limited truce and a prisoner exchange as confidence-building steps. A full settlement remains distant, but the guns may quiet first along parts of the line.
The final midterm stretch tightens, with control of the House on a knife’s edge — read ▸
Washington — The final stretch of the midterm campaign tightens, with control of the House on a knife’s edge and turnout the decisive unknown. Both parties pour resources into a handful of districts.
A model-misuse scare revives calls for binding AI rules on both sides of the Atlantic — read ▸
Brussels — A model-misuse scare involving automated fraud at scale revives demands for binding AI rules, pushing legislators on both sides of the Atlantic toward harder lines than the summer’s voluntary pact.
Hormuz shipping returns near pre-war levels; oil stays quietly stable — read ▸
Dubai — Hormuz shipping returns to near pre-war levels and oil stays quietly stable, easing one of the year’s biggest tail risks for the global economy.
US midterms: Democrats retake the House, Republicans hold the Senate — divided government returns
Washington — In the midterm elections, Democrats retake the House while Republicans hold the Senate, returning divided government and checking the administration’s legislative agenda for the next two years. Oversight battles loom.
An armistice line is provisionally agreed; monitors and guarantees the sticking points — read ▸
Kyiv — An armistice line is provisionally agreed, but monitoring arrangements and external security guarantees remain the sticking points that could still unravel it before it takes hold.
Burnham’s honeymoon meets a cost-of-living squeeze; first by-election test looms — read ▸
London — Burnham’s honeymoon collides with a renewed cost-of-living squeeze, and a looming by-election becomes an early referendum on the new government’s direction.
Post-midterm markets rally on gridlock; the dollar eases — read ▸
New York — Markets rally after the midterms on the prospect of legislative gridlock, and the dollar eases as traders price a calmer, more predictable policy path into 2027.
Beijing tests the new Washington balance with fresh grey-zone pressure — read ▸
Beijing — Beijing probes the recalibrated Washington balance with renewed grey-zone pressure around Taiwan and the South China Sea, watching for any sign that divided government dulls American resolve.
A fragile Ukraine armistice freezes the front by year’s end as the sanctions-easing fight begins
Kyiv — A fragile armistice freezes the front by year’s end, halting large-scale fighting even as the harder fight — over sanctions relief, reconstruction and guarantees — begins. Few are willing to call it peace.
Year-end: the interim Iran deal survives, but a permanent accord is still unfinished — read ▸
Tehran — The interim Iran deal survives the year, but a permanent accord remains unfinished, its nuclear core still subject to extended talks running into 2027.
A lame-duck Congress fights over the budget as divided government sets in — read ▸
Washington — A lame-duck Congress fights over the budget as divided government settles in, foreshadowing two years of fiscal brinkmanship and shutdown threats.
2026 in review: a year of brinkmanship that bent toward uneasy settlements — read ▸
London — In review, 2026 reads as a year of brinkmanship that bent, narrowly, toward uneasy settlements rather than open war — in the Gulf, over Ukraine, and across the Taiwan Strait.
Oil ends the year in the $70s; equities close higher on de-escalation — read ▸
London — Oil ends the year in the $70s and equities close higher, the war premium largely unwound and recession fears receding into the new year.
Ukraine’s ceasefire holds tenuously; reconstruction and security-guarantee talks open
Kyiv — The ceasefire holds tenuously into the new year as talks open on reconstruction and security guarantees. Sporadic violations test the line, but the truce endures its first weeks.
New divided Congress seated; early clashes over spending and oversight — read ▸
Washington — A new divided Congress is seated and clashes immediately over spending and oversight, setting a combative tone for a session in which little major legislation is expected to pass.
PM Burnham’s first Budget leans on growth and green investment — read ▸
London — Burnham’s first Budget leans on growth and green investment, betting that supply-side reform and infrastructure can outrun a restive electorate and a resurgent Reform.
Landmark AI rules advance as the EU and US converge on evaluation standards — read ▸
Brussels — Landmark AI rules advance as the EU and US converge on shared evaluation standards — the first real architecture of cross-border AI governance, though enforcement details remain thin.
Nuclear talks resume with a longer timeline; cautious optimism — read ▸
Vienna — Nuclear talks resume on a longer timeline, with negotiators expressing cautious optimism about a durable framework that trades phased sanctions relief for verifiable limits.
A Taiwan Strait crisis flares — a blockade scare — but stops short of open conflict
Taipei — A Taiwan Strait crisis flares as Beijing mounts a blockade-style exercise, but the confrontation stops short of open conflict after intense diplomacy and US naval signalling. The scare reorders risk assessments across Asia.
Markets shudder then recover as the Taiwan scare eases — read ▸
New York — Markets shudder on the Taiwan scare, then recover as the crisis eases — a reminder of how much global risk sits bottled in a single strait and its semiconductor supply.
Sporadic ceasefire violations test the young armistice — read ▸
Kyiv — Sporadic ceasefire violations test the young armistice, but neither side appears to want a return to full-scale war, and the line broadly holds.
Washington reassures allies amid the Taiwan tension; defence-budget debate sharpens — read ▸
Washington — Washington reassures Indo-Pacific allies amid the tension, and the defence-budget debate sharpens around deterrence in Asia, cutting across the divided Congress.
Global supply chains brace for any East-Asia disruption — read ▸
Singapore — Global supply chains brace for any East-Asia disruption, accelerating quiet efforts to diversify chip and component sourcing away from a single chokepoint.
Iran and the US extend a fuller nuclear framework; sanctions ease in stages
Geneva — Iran and the US extend a fuller nuclear framework, with sanctions easing in phased steps tied to verification milestones — the most durable arrangement since the war ended.
Taiwan tensions cool into a wary stand-off; back-channels reopen — read ▸
Beijing — Taiwan tensions cool into a wary stand-off as back-channels reopen, leaving deterrence intact but dialogue restored after February’s scare.
Global growth picks up; central banks edge toward cutting rates — read ▸
London — Global growth picks up and central banks edge toward rate cuts, with a soft landing increasingly the base case after two years of tightening and shocks.
Burnham government steadies; Reform UK still leads several national polls — read ▸
London — The Burnham government steadies in office, though Reform UK still tops several national polls, keeping the next election wide open and the government on edge.
AI-driven productivity gains and job-displacement worries dominate the economic debate — read ▸
San Francisco — AI-driven productivity gains and job-displacement worries dominate the economic debate, as firms report both efficiency windfalls and disruption to white-collar work.
UK local elections: Reform UK makes sweeping gains; Labour holds key mayoralties
London — In local elections, Reform UK makes sweeping gains while Labour clings to key mayoralties — a split verdict that unsettles both main parties and sharpens the contest for the next general election.
The 2028 presidential field begins to form on both sides — read ▸
Washington — The 2028 presidential field begins to form on both sides, with early manoeuvring over the economy, AI and the border defining the opening contours of the race.
The frozen front holds; a phased reconstruction plan wins Western funding — read ▸
Kyiv — The frozen front holds as a phased reconstruction plan wins Western funding, shifting the contest from the battlefield to the budget and the slow politics of rebuilding.
An AI data-centre energy crunch collides with climate targets — read ▸
Dublin — An AI data-centre energy crunch collides with climate targets, as soaring compute demand strains national grids and pressures emissions pledges across Europe and the US.
Energy and grids become the year’s quiet strategic story — read ▸
London — Energy and electricity grids emerge as the year’s quiet strategic story, with power — not chips — increasingly the binding constraint on the AI build-out.
Compute and power constraints reshape the AI race; firms chase nuclear and grid deals
San Francisco — Compute and power constraints reshape the AI race, as firms chase nuclear, geothermal and grid deals to feed ever-larger models. Access to electricity becomes a competitive moat.
China leans into industrial and AI subsidies; trade frictions widen — read ▸
Beijing — China leans into industrial and AI subsidies, widening trade frictions with the US and Europe and reviving talk of tariffs and export controls.
Markets near record highs on the AI-investment boom; bubble warnings grow — read ▸
New York — Markets push toward record highs on the AI-investment boom, even as a chorus of strategists warns that valuations have run ahead of earnings.
Primary jockeying intensifies, with the economy and AI jobs leading the debate — read ▸
Washington — Primary jockeying intensifies, with the economy and AI-related jobs leading the early 2028 debate as candidates stake out positions on automation and wages.
Middle East calm largely holds as reconstruction and trade reopen — read ▸
Dubai — Middle East calm largely holds as reconstruction and trade reopen, and the region’s risk premium continues to fade from energy and shipping markets.
One year on from the Iran deal, the Middle East settles into a fragile normal
Dubai — One year on from the Iran deal, the Middle East settles into a fragile normal — its peace imperfect and its disputes unresolved, but its war receded into memory.
Ukraine’s armistice nears its first anniversary, still unsigned as a full peace — read ▸
Kyiv — Ukraine’s armistice nears its first anniversary, still unsigned as a full peace and dependent on continued external guarantees to keep the line frozen.
Mid-term Britain: Burnham versus a resurgent Reform defines the next election — read ▸
London — Mid-term Britain crystallises into a Burnham-versus-Reform contest that will define the next general election, with the two main legacy parties squeezed at the edges.
Fresh AI capability leaps reignite the safety-versus-acceleration argument — read ▸
London — Fresh AI capability leaps reignite the safety-versus-acceleration argument, splitting industry and governments over how fast to deploy increasingly autonomous systems.
An AI-led market keeps climbing, with volatility lurking beneath the surface — read ▸
New York — An AI-led market keeps climbing, with volatility lurking beneath a placid surface as concentration in a handful of mega-cap names deepens.
A crewed lunar landing succeeds — the first boots on the Moon in over half a century
Cape Canaveral — A crewed mission lands on the Moon, putting the first boots on the lunar surface in more than half a century and reopening an era of human deep-space exploration. The landing is broadcast live to a global audience.
A summer of AI breakthroughs and a fresh misuse scare keep regulators busy — read ▸
San Francisco — A summer of AI breakthroughs and a fresh misuse scare keep regulators busy, as capability and risk advance in tandem and the voluntary regime strains.
Heat-driven energy demand and AI load strain grids worldwide — read ▸
Singapore — Heat-driven energy demand and AI load strain grids worldwide, exposing the limits of ageing power infrastructure during a punishing northern-hemisphere summer.
Beijing and Washington manage a wary, competitive coexistence — read ▸
Beijing — Beijing and Washington manage a wary, competitive coexistence — neither seeking confrontation nor conceding ground, with guardrails holding for now.
Quiet on the Ukraine front; politics shifts to reconstruction and accountability — read ▸
Kyiv — The Ukraine front stays quiet as politics shifts to reconstruction, accountability and the slow grind toward a formal peace that still eludes negotiators.
A severe climate summer of heat and floods pushes adaptation up the agenda
Geneva — A severe climate summer of heat and floods pushes adaptation up the global agenda, with mounting damage tallies and renewed pressure on governments to fund resilience.
Markets wobble on an AI-valuations scare, then steady — read ▸
New York — Markets wobble on an AI-valuations scare before steadying — a tremor that hints at the boom’s fragility without yet breaking its momentum.
2028 primary front-runners emerge as the campaign accelerates — read ▸
Washington — 2028 primary front-runners emerge as the campaign accelerates, narrowing a once-crowded field heading into the autumn debate season.
Governments weigh harder AI rules after the summer’s incidents — read ▸
Brussels — Governments weigh harder AI rules after the summer’s incidents, testing the limits of the voluntary regime and edging toward enforceable standards.
Burnham reshuffles to counter Reform as an election footing takes shape — read ▸
London — Burnham reshuffles his cabinet to counter Reform, putting the government on an election footing and sharpening its message on the economy and migration.
The 2028 race takes clearer shape; AI, prices and the border dominate
Washington — The 2028 race takes clearer shape, with AI, prices and the border emerging as its defining issues as the primary field consolidates.
Iran’s nuclear file edges toward a durable settlement, monitoring disputes aside — read ▸
Vienna — Iran’s nuclear file edges toward a durable settlement, monitoring disputes notwithstanding, as both sides bank the gains of two years of fragile diplomacy.
A US–China leaders’ meeting yields modest trade and AI guardrails — read ▸
Beijing — A US–China leaders’ meeting yields modest agreements on trade and AI guardrails, easing the worst tail risks even as strategic competition continues.
Central banks cut as inflation fades; soft-landing optimism returns — read ▸
London — Central banks cut rates as inflation fades, and soft-landing optimism returns to markets after a summer of nerves.
AI agents go mainstream in white-collar work, accelerating the jobs debate — read ▸
San Francisco — AI agents go mainstream in white-collar work, accelerating a debate over jobs, wages and oversight that increasingly dominates the 2028 campaign.
The Ukraine armistice holds; a formal peace stays elusive amid guarantee disputes
Kyiv — The armistice holds, but a formal peace stays elusive amid disputes over security guarantees and territory that neither side will concede.
Britain in pre-election mode: Burnham and Reform run neck-and-neck — read ▸
London — Britain shifts into pre-election mode, with Burnham and Reform running neck-and-neck and the campaign turning on the cost of living and public services.
A landmark global AI-governance accord is negotiated, enforcement still thin — read ▸
Geneva — A landmark global AI-governance accord is negotiated, though enforcement remains thin and contested — a framework ahead of the institutions to police it.
Markets price a 2028 of slower growth but easier money — read ▸
New York — Markets price a 2028 of slower growth but easier money, balancing optimism about rate cuts against caution over stretched AI valuations.
Taiwan stays tense but quiet as deterrence and dialogue both hold — read ▸
Taipei — Taiwan stays tense but quiet, with deterrence and dialogue both, for now, holding the line after the year’s earlier scare.
One year to the 2028 election, the field narrows and the economy is the battleground
Washington — One year from the 2028 election, the field narrows and the economy becomes the central battleground, with AI and immigration close behind.
AI’s economic footprint becomes the central political question of 2028 — read ▸
San Francisco — AI’s economic footprint becomes the defining political question of 2028, cutting across party lines as candidates spar over jobs, taxation of automation and safety.
COP-season climate diplomacy meets the AI-energy dilemma head-on — read ▸
Dubai — COP-season climate diplomacy collides with the AI-energy dilemma, forcing an awkward reckoning over surging power demand from data centres against emissions goals.
Record markets meet louder warnings of an AI-investment bubble — read ▸
New York — Record markets meet louder warnings of an AI-investment bubble, with valuations stretched and a growing share of gains concentrated in a few names.
The Middle East stays largely calm; the 2026 deal endures into its second year — read ▸
Dubai — The Middle East stays largely calm, and the 2026 deal endures into its second year — an imperfect peace that has, so far, held.
End of 2027: a world that stepped back from several brinks, yet settled little for good
London — At the end of 2027, the world has stepped back from several brinks — the Gulf, Ukraine, Taiwan — yet settled little for good. It closes the year having managed its risks more than resolved them.
Ukraine ends 2027 frozen, not at peace; reconstruction outpaces diplomacy — read ▸
Kyiv — Ukraine ends 2027 frozen, not at peace, with reconstruction outpacing diplomacy and a formal settlement still beyond reach.
America enters an election year split, anxious and AI-obsessed — read ▸
Washington — America enters an election year split, anxious and AI-obsessed, its politics dominated by the technology, the economy and a knife-edge contest for the White House.
AI ends 2027 more capable, more regulated, and more contested than ever — read ▸
San Francisco — AI closes the year more capable, more regulated and more contested than ever, its trajectory still accelerating faster than the institutions built to govern it.
Markets close a buoyant, jittery year near highs; all eyes on 2028 — read ▸
New York — Markets close a buoyant, jittery year near record highs, with all eyes on a 2028 of elections, rate cuts and the question of whether the AI boom can hold.