Russia-Ukraine War · D+1Low
Forecast revised: Day 6 post-Oleshky
Dem Congress signals $24B supplemental support. Saturday Nov 7 — Active frontline fighting continues along Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv lines; no strategic breakthrough expected. Incoming Dem House leadership signals immediate reintroduction of $24B Ukraine supplemental in first week of new Congress. Zelensky expected to call Jeffries and Schumer over the weekend. Russian energy infrastructure strikes ongoing.
Iran / Strait of Hormuz / Diplomacy · D+1Low
Forecast revised: Qatar Hormuz talks Day 6
Dem sweep creating diplomatic opening. Saturday Nov 7 — Qatar Hormuz talks Day 6. Iran delegation in Doha; sequencing impasse continues (Iran: Hormuz first; US: nuclear first). Dem sweep seen in Tehran as potential for eased maximum-pressure posture. Iranian foreign ministry statement on US election expected. No deal this weekend. Kalshi: 15% US-Iran deal by Dec 31.
Yemen / Gulf Security / Saudi Arabia · D+1Low
Forecast revised: Day 30 Riyadh attack anniversary
Houthi political bureau statement anticipated. Saturday Nov 7 — Day 30 since Oct 10 Riyadh airport attack. Houthi political bureau expected to issue formal statement acknowledging Dem sweep; tone determines Red Sea posture for next 2-4 weeks. Dem Congress seen as potential for US Yemen policy adjustment. Red Sea shipping monitoring elevated. No new strikes overnight.
Global Health / DRC / Ebola · D+1Low
Forecast revised: DRC ~10,850-11,000
Nigeria Day 18 contacts monitored. Saturday Nov 7 — DRC Ebola case count ~10,850-11,000 (80-100/day trajectory, Bundibugyo strain). Nigeria contacts Day 18: PCR results for 44+ contacts expected; no secondary spread confirmed yet. WHO weekly sitrep expected this weekend. Equateur Province cluster watch ongoing. Metaculus: 72% >12,500 by Dec 31.
Israel / Middle East Politics · D+1Low
Forecast revised: Coalition Day 6-7
Knesset swearing-in Nov 10 in 3 days. Saturday Nov 7 — Coalition Day 6-7. Netanyahu in final bilateral meetings with Otzma Yehudit (Ben-Gvir) and Degel HaTorah; portfolio demands remain main obstacle. Knesset 25th swearing-in Monday Nov 10; President Herzog to assign mandate to Likud. No formal coalition announcement expected this weekend.
US Domestic Politics / Midterm Aftermath · D+2Low
Forecast revised: Day 5 post-election
full House and Senate certified. Sunday Nov 8 — Day 5 post-election. All House races called; Dem count 234-244, Senate 54 Dem confirmed. Speaker-elect Jeffries confirmed by Democratic caucus; Republican minority leader election (Scalise expected) this week. First Dem bill priorities announced; Trump expected to address path forward on domestic agenda.
Russia-Ukraine War · D+2Low
Forecast revised: Day 7 post-ceasefire
Dem Congressional delegation to Kyiv planned. Sunday Nov 8 — Active frontline conflict continues Day 7 post-Oleshky expiry; Zaporizhzhia pressure point. Kyiv in contact with incoming Dem Congressional leadership on aid continuity. First bipartisan Dem-led delegation to Kyiv likely announced this week. $24B supplemental bill being drafted. Brent $91-93.
Iran / Strait of Hormuz / Diplomacy · D+2Low
Forecast revised: Hormuz talks Day 7-8
Pezeshkian signals direction. Sunday Nov 8 — Qatar Hormuz talks Day 7-8. Pezeshkian expected to issue public statement on direction; Iranian domestic hardliners pushing back against compromise. Dem Congress signals potential sanctions relief review. No deal this weekend; either incremental positive signal or stall notice by EOD Sunday.
Yemen / Gulf Security / Saudi Arabia · D+2Low
Forecast revised: Day 31 Riyadh attack
Houthi response to Dem sweep to shape Red Sea posture. Sunday Nov 8 — Day 31 since Oct 10 Riyadh airport attack. Houthi formal statement out or expected by EOD Sunday; tone telegraphs Red Sea posture for coming weeks. Dem sweep seen as potential for US Yemen policy adjustment. CENTCOM monitoring Gulf of Aden shipping lanes.
Global Health / DRC / Ebola · D+2Low
Forecast revised: DRC ~10,900-11,100
Nigeria Day 19 — potential second case assessment. Sunday Nov 8 — DRC Ebola ~10,900-11,100 (80-150/day with possible Equateur Province acceleration). Nigeria Day 19 of contact tracing for 44+ contacts; second case assessment pending. WHO Emergency Committee may convene if Equateur Province cluster confirms acceleration. Metaculus 72% >12,500 by Dec 31.
Israel / Middle East Politics · D+2Low
Forecast revised: Knesset swearing-in Nov 10 in 2 days
Netanyahu final push for coalition framework. Sunday Nov 8 — Knesset 25th swears in Monday Nov 10; President Herzog to assign coalition-forming mandate to Netanyahu as Likud leader. Coalition announcement not expected until late November. Ben-Gvir demanding National Security Ministry; Smotrich Finance Ministry guaranteed. Deal framework expected within 2 weeks of swearing-in.
US Domestic Politics / Midterm Aftermath · D+3Low
Monday Nov 9
Day 6 post-election. Final House map 97%+ certified; Jeffries Speaker nomination confirmed by Democratic caucus. Republican House minority leader election expected (Scalise or successor). First major Democratic bill targets announced: Ukraine supplemental, climate priorities. Trump to address Democratic gains in press conference or statement.
Russia-Ukraine War · D+3Low
Monday Nov 9
Day 8 post-Oleshky expiry. Active frontline conflict continues; Russian-Ukrainian contact line under sustained pressure in Zaporizhzhia. First Dem Congressional delegation to Kyiv likely announced this week. $24B supplemental expected to be introduced in first week of new Congress. Trump administration watching Dem Ukraine posture.
Iran / Strait of Hormuz / Diplomacy · D+3Low
Monday Nov 9
Qatar Hormuz talks Day 8-9. Pezeshkian statement framing expected; Iranian side seeking pre-agreement gestures from incoming Dem Congress on sanctions stance. Kalshi: 15% deal by Dec 31. No breakthrough imminent but diplomatic temperature rising post-Dem sweep. Watch: US State Dept signal on Iran sanctions review timeline.
Yemen / Gulf Security / Saudi Arabia · D+3Low
Monday Nov 9
Day 32 since Oct 10 Riyadh airport attack. Houthi response to Dem sweep: de-escalatory statement + potential Red Sea pause (3-7 day moratorium) OR continuation of pressure while awaiting Trump administration policy signals. No liquid market. Watch: CENTCOM shipping alerts and Saudi statement on Houthi posture.
Global Health / DRC / Ebola · D+3Low
Monday Nov 9
DRC Ebola approaching 11,000 milestone (~10,970-11,250 estimated). WHO may convene emergency committee session this week if Equateur Province cluster confirmed. Nigeria Day 20: second case assessment final; if negative, Nigeria declares early containment success. WHO PHEIC reassessment possible depending on Equateur cluster outcome.
Israel / Middle East Politics · D+3Low
Monday Nov 9
Knesset 25th swearing-in TOMORROW (Nov 10). Netanyahu requested 28-day coalition-forming window from President Herzog. Ben-Gvir portfolio talks: National Security Ministry again or hardball for new ministry. Smotrich: Finance Ministry guaranteed. Deal framework expected within 2 weeks of swearing-in; full coalition announcement late November.