· D+1Medium
Berlin Day 4: Sub-Working Groups Hold First Sessions; Expropriation Compromise Drafted
Resolves 24 SepEvidence & criteria →
Tomorrow's news · · our forecast for Thursday, 24 September 2026
Post-UNGA Iran Sidebar: Tehran's Response Thursday; Oct 25 Deadline 31 Days
Today's forecast briefingThe world in probabilitiesPublished before events unfold
Forecasts21across 0 beats
Confidence mixLowhigh uncertainty
Markets watched22open questions tracked
Public record77%1448 graded
What happens next
View all 20 forecasts → · D+1Medium
Sweden Deadline Day 4: Minority Government Path Surfaces; Sep 28 Unchanged
Resolves 24 SepEvidence & criteria →
· D+1Medium
UNGA Day 3: Zelensky Trilateral Push; Energy Truce Drafted; Graham Sanctions Day 6
Resolves 24 SepOpen →
· D+1Medium
Thursday Oil: EIA Carry-Through; Iran Sidebar Positive Signal; Brent $95–103
Resolves 24 SepOpen →
· D+1Low
Ebola Day 134: WHO Emergency Decision Expected; ~7,870 Cases; Houthi Day 25
Resolves 24 SepOpen →
· D+1Medium
Midterms 40 Days: Q3 Sprint; Iran 'Deal or Annihilate' Shifts Narrative
Resolves 24 SepOpen →
· D+2Medium
Iran Post-UNGA: Tehran's Formal Response; Oct 25 Deadline 30 Days
Resolves 25 SepOpen →
· D+2Low
Berlin Day 5: Sub-Working Group Interim Reports; SPD Internal Expropriation Test
Resolves 25 SepOpen →
· D+2Low
Sweden 3 Days to Sep 28: Final Weekend Negotiations; Minority or Collapse?
Resolves 25 SepOpen →
· D+2Low
Graham Sanctions Day 7; UNGA Week Closes; Energy Truce Text Expected
Resolves 25 SepOpen →
· D+2Low
Friday Oil: Iran-UNGA Week Resolved; End-of-Quarter Squaring; Brent $92–108
Resolves 25 SepOpen →
· D+2Low
Ebola Day 135: PHEIC Escalation Possible; ~7,940 Cases; Houthi Day 26
Resolves 25 SepOpen →
· D+2Low
Midterms 39 Days: Q3 Sprint; Iran War Polling Week Ends; Senate Battleground
Resolves 25 SepOpen →
· D+3Low
Iran Weekend Watch: Post-UNGA Diplomatic Follow-Through; Oct 25 Deadline 29 Days
Resolves 26 SepOpen →
· D+3Low
Berlin Day 6: Weekend Coalition Talks; First Public Polls on Red-Green-Red
Resolves 26 SepOpen →
· D+3Low
Sweden 2 Days to Sep 28: Last-Chance Weekend; Left Party Compromise?
Resolves 26 SepOpen →
· D+3Low
UNGA Weekend: Energy Truce Implementation; Graham Sanctions Day 8; Zelensky Debrief
Resolves 26 SepOpen →
· D+3Low
Weekend Oil: Iran-UNGA Outcome; Q3 End; Brent $90–110
Resolves 26 SepOpen →
· D+3Low
Ebola Day 136: WHO Escalation Impact; MSF Vaccine Trial Watch; Houthi Day 27
Resolves 26 SepOpen →
· D+3Low
Midterms 38 Days: Q3 Final Stretch; UNGA-Iran Weekend Messaging War
Resolves 26 SepOpen →
By the numbers
See the full record →77%Track record1448 forecasts graded
21Live forecastsin this edition
811Hits+613 partial
24Missesclear misses to date
0Awaiting resolutionnot yet gradable
168/172Model vs marketmarket: 166 correct
Skill by horizon
80%D+1656 graded
76%D+2407 graded
73%D+3385 graded
Calibration by confidence
79%High36 graded
84%Medium223 graded
78%Low829 graded
Decision tree
What could change the lead forecast?
A forecast is a conditional judgment, not a claim of certainty. These are the paths we are watching.
100%
Polymarket
FOMC rate hike Sep 15–16 meeting — RESOLVED YES (+25bps to 3.75–4.00%)
100%
Kalshi
House passes Russia/Iran Sanctions Act Sep 16 — RESOLVED YES
59%
Polymarket
US midterms: Democrats control Senate after Nov 2026
The public record
Don't trust us.
Check the record.
77%1448 forecasts graded · 24 misses
✓ Resolved · hit
Midterms 41 Days: Senate Polls NH/PA/WI; Democrats 59% Senate on Polymarket
41 days to Nov 3; Polymarket 59% Senate Democrats confirmed; NH/PA/WI polls in progress.
✓ Resolved · hit
Ebola Day 133: ~7,800 Cases; Houthi Bab el-Mandeb Day 24; WHO Decision Window
Ebola ~7,800 cases as forecast; WHO Emergency decision window open; Houthi Day 24 as forecast.
✓ Resolved · hit
Oil Wednesday: EIA Inventory Report; Trump UNGA Speech; Brent $98-105 Range
Brent ~$98-99 within $98-105 forecast range; EIA report delivered; Iran UNGA speech shaped markets.